BTS or speculative warehouse — which pays off more?
There is no single good answer to the question of whether a BTS (built-to-suit) warehouse or a speculative warehouse pays off more. The answer depends on whether we’re asking from the tenant’s perspective or from the developer’s and investor’s perspective — and in both cases it also depends on the scale of the project, land availability in a given location, and how quickly the company needs the space.
In the previous article in the series we wrote about which warehouse locations have the greatest growth potential through 2030. The natural next question is which delivery model makes the most sense in those locations today — and why more and more developers, including in Świecko and along the A2 corridor, are opting for BTS.
What is the difference between a BTS warehouse and a speculative warehouse?
A BTS (built-to-suit) warehouse is a building designed and constructed for a specific tenant, according to that tenant’s requirements regarding floor area, clear height, number of loading docks, floor load capacity, or automation. The lease agreement (or, in some cases, a sale agreement) is usually signed before construction starts or at an early stage of the build.
A speculative warehouse is a building constructed without a lease agreement signed in advance — the developer assumes it will find a tenant during construction or after completion. The building’s specification is universal, so that it suits as wide a range of potential tenants as possible.
There is also a hybrid model that is increasingly common in practice: speculative construction with a partial pre-let, meaning the developer starts building without having 100% of the space leased, but already has a signed agreement covering part of the modules. This approach combines some of the benefits of both models — it gives the developer easier access to financing, while giving tenants smaller than a typical BTS the chance to move into a building of a higher standard than a purely speculative one.
BTS vs. speculative warehouse — comparison
| Criterion | BTS warehouse | Speculative warehouse |
|---|---|---|
| Starting point | Lease agreement signed before or at the start of construction | Construction begins without a signed lease |
| Delivery time | Usually longer — the project is tailored to the tenant | Can be shorter with a standard specification |
| Developer’s risk | Lower — income secured by the lease | Higher — risk of vacancy and rental pressure |
| Tenant’s risk | Higher for shorter-established businesses — long-term commitment | Lower — ready-made space can be leased immediately |
| Financing | Easier — the bank sees secured income (pre-let) | Harder without a pre-let; higher cost of capital |
| Flexibility of space | Low — the building is fitted to a single tenant | Higher — can be divided into modules for several tenants |
| Availability „right away” | No — construction has to be completed first | Yes, if the building is already finished or nearing completion |
| Typical scale | Large, dedicated modules (20,000+ sqm) | Varied, often smaller, divisible modules |
| Investment security for a buyer | High — long lease, predictable income | Depends on whether and when the building gets leased up |
Why are developers increasingly opting for BTS?
JLL data for the first half of 2026 show that in many locations across the market there is very limited availability of large, ready-made modules — particularly in the 20,000–30,000 sqm range and above. This is prompting companies to consider BTS projects more often, rather than waiting for suitable speculative space to appear. JLL analysts also point out that tenant expectations are rising in qualitative terms — ESG has stopped being optional and has become the standard, and questions about readiness for automation and robotic systems are appearing even at an early stage of negotiations. Such requirements are far easier to meet in a made-to-measure project than in a universal speculative building.
This is reflected directly in the structure of supply. According to AXI IMMO data for the first half of 2026, speculatively developed space accounted for only 38.6% of all warehouse investments under construction in Poland — meaning more than 61% of the space being built today involves a secured tenant, in practice either BTS or projects with a high level of pre-letting. This marks a clear shift from the earlier years of the development boom, when purely speculative supply accounted for a much larger share of the market.
JLL data also show that developers are exercising considerable caution today: in the first half of 2026, the vacancy rate fell from 7.1% to 6.3%, and readily available space (including vacant modules and speculative projects under construction) shrank by around 300,000 sqm in just three months. The market is no longer in a phase of uncontrolled supply growth — developers are building selectively, which naturally shifts the balance towards BTS.
When does a speculative warehouse still make sense?
Despite this advantage of BTS, a speculative warehouse remains a good solution in several situations:
- when a tenant needs space „right away”, and the BTS construction process would take too long
- when a company is not yet certain of its target space requirement and wants to keep flexibility (e.g. the option to expand or reduce the module)
- in locations with strong, predictable demand (major logistics hubs), where the developer has high confidence the building will get leased up
- for small and medium-sized tenants, for whom a dedicated BTS building would not be economically justified
- as a way for a developer to diversify their portfolio — several smaller tenants instead of dependence on a single contract
Risk from the tenant’s perspective
For a tenant, BTS means a building perfectly suited to its operations, but also a long-term lease commitment — typically 10 years or more, which is a condition for the developer to obtain financing. This is a good solution for companies with stable, predictable operations, but a risky one for those without certainty about their situation over a longer horizon.
A speculative warehouse offers more freedom — ready-made space can be leased faster, often for a shorter term or with an option for flexible expansion. The trade-off is that the building does not always perfectly match the tenant’s specific operational needs (e.g. clear height, dock layout, floor load capacity).
Risk and security from the investor’s perspective
From the perspective of an investor buying a completed warehouse, a BTS building with a long lease is today one of the safest assets in commercial real estate — regular, predictable income, low tenant turnover, easier valuation. A speculative warehouse, especially one not yet leased, carries higher risk, but also potentially a higher return if the developer manages to lease it up quickly on good rental terms.
How does financing work under each model?
A bank financing warehouse construction primarily assesses the predictability of future income. In the case of BTS with a signed, long-term lease (pre-let), credit risk is significantly lower — the bank sees a specific tenant, a specific rent, and a specific lease term, which makes the project easier to value and usually allows for more favourable financing terms.
With a purely speculative warehouse, the bank has no such certainty — financing is more expensive, requires a higher equity contribution from the developer, and often additional collateral. This is why developers are increasingly choosing to start construction only once at least a partial pre-let has been secured, which in practice pushes many projects closer to the hybrid model described above.
Decision process: how to choose the right model
When choosing between BTS and a speculative warehouse, it is worth answering a few questions:
- How urgently do we need the space — can we wait for a dedicated building to be constructed?
- Are our technical requirements (height, load capacity, docks, automation) specific enough that a standard speculative building wouldn’t meet them?
- Are we ready to commit to a lease of 10 years or more?
- Do we anticipate a significant change in the scale of our operations in the coming years?
- Is speculative space actually available in the location we’re interested in, or would a building have to be constructed from scratch?
The answers to these questions usually point naturally towards the right direction — and this is exactly where we start the conversation with every client looking for warehouse space at EcoProperty.
BTS in the context of Świecko and western Poland
In locations with high growth potential but still a lower supply base — such as Świecko and the A2 corridor — the BTS model has additional justification. Companies planning to serve the German market from the Polish side of the border often need a building tailored to a specific operational profile: cross-docking, e-commerce returns logistics, light manufacturing, or cross-border distribution. The Gateway A2 project in Świecko, which allows for the development of around 80,000 sqm of warehouse and logistics space, could be developed exactly in this way — in stages, matching successive modules to specific tenants rather than building on a fully speculative basis.
FAQ: BTS or speculative warehouse?
What does BTS mean in warehouse real estate?
BTS (built-to-suit) is a warehouse designed and built for a specific tenant, in line with that tenant’s technical and operational requirements.
Is BTS more expensive than a speculative warehouse?
Not always on a per-sqm basis, but it usually involves a higher upfront investment of time and capital, as well as a long-term lease commitment on the tenant’s side.
Which model is safer for an investor?
BTS with a signed, long lease is usually safer — it provides predictable income and an easier valuation. A speculative warehouse carries higher risk, but also potentially a higher rate of return.
Are speculative warehouses disappearing from the market?
No, but their share of new supply has fallen — in the first half of 2026 they accounted for around 38.6% of all warehouse investments under construction in Poland, according to AXI IMMO data.
Does BTS make sense in smaller locations such as Świecko?
Yes, particularly when a company wants to tailor a building to specific needs (such as cross-border logistics) and the location has limited availability of ready speculative space.
How long does it take to deliver a BTS warehouse?
It depends on the scale and complexity of the project, but the process is usually longer than leasing ready speculative space, since it involves designing to a specific tenant’s requirements before or during construction.
Summary
There is no universal answer to the question of what pays off more — BTS or a speculative warehouse. For large, stable tenants with specific technical requirements and a long operating horizon, BTS delivers a tailored building and the security of a long-term lease. For tenants who need space quickly, or who want to keep flexibility around the scale of their operations, a speculative warehouse — where available in a given location — remains a sensible choice.
The market trend, however, is clear: limited availability of large, ready-made modules and rising quality requirements (including ESG) mean BTS is gaining in importance, while the share of purely speculative supply in Poland is declining. In locations with high growth potential but a less mature market — such as Świecko — the BTS model may be particularly well suited to the needs of companies entering the cross-border market.
If you are considering a warehouse tailored to specific operational needs in Świecko or along the A2 corridor, please get in touch with EcoProperty and take a look at the Gateway A2 project.
What’s next?
Now that we know the difference between BTS and a speculative warehouse, the natural next question is how to actually calculate the profitability of a warehouse investment. In the next article in the series we will look at: How to calculate the profitability of a warehouse investment? — covering yield, ROI, cash flow and cap rate, and showing how to apply these metrics when assessing a specific warehouse project.
Sources used in this article
JLL, „Polish warehouse market” — data and commentary on the limited availability of large modules (20,000–30,000 sqm and above), and rising ESG and automation requirements as factors driving demand for BTS projects.
https://www.jll.com/pl-pl/newsroom/polski-rynek-magazynowy
JLL, H1 2026 report — data on net take-up (2.1 million sqm), the vacancy rate falling from 7.1% to 6.3%, and available space shrinking by around 300,000 sqm within a single quarter.
AXI IMMO, „Industrial market in Poland, H1 2026” — data on the share of speculatively developed space (38.6% of all investments under construction) and total warehouse and industrial stock in Poland (38.01 million sqm at the end of June 2026).
https://portaltsl.pl/logistyka/popyt-na-magazyny-rosnie-przestrzen-kurczy-sie-w-oczach
Gateway A2 — information on the project in Świecko, the planned warehouse and logistics space (approx. 80,000 sqm), and its location on the German border and the A2 motorway.