Is it still a good time to invest in warehouses? 

Is it still a good time to invest in warehouses? Yes, but not for every project and not in every  location. The Polish warehouse market has entered a more mature phase. After the very dynamic  growth seen between 2019 and 2023, a period of higher financing costs and greater investor caution,  2026 is showing signs of stabilisation and a gradual return of investment activity. 

However, this does not mean that every warehouse will be a good investment. The market is  increasingly divided between prime assets and secondary properties. Today, the most important  factors are location, access to infrastructure, lease length, tenant quality, vacancy levels, re-letting  potential, land prices, financing costs, and rental growth potential. 

For investors, this means one thing: it may still be a good time to invest in warehouses, but the  market requires much more selectivity than it did a few years ago. 

Short answer: is it worth investing in warehouses today? 

Warehouse investments are worth considering if the project is located in a strong location, has real  occupier demand, access to infrastructure, a stable financing model, and the ability to generate long term income. 

The market is no longer in a phase of unconditional growth. However, this may be positive for  investors who are looking for quality rather than short-term speculation. The strongest potential  today can be found in modern Class A warehouses, BTS projects, assets with secured tenants, land  located along major transport corridors, and locations serving e-commerce, 3PL operators, light  manufacturing, nearshoring, and cross-border logistics. 

Key factors determining the profitability of a warehouse  investment

Where are we in the warehouse market cycle? 

The Polish warehouse market has gone through three clear stages in recent years. 

The first stage was very dynamic growth driven by e-commerce, low interest rates, the expansion of  supply chains, and strong developer activity. During this period, many projects were developed  speculatively, meaning without a tenant secured in advance. 

The second stage was a cooling phase. Higher interest rates, rising construction costs, the war in  Ukraine, geopolitical uncertainty, and greater tenant caution led to a reduction in new investment  activity. 

The third stage, where the market is now, is stabilisation. According to CBRE, the Polish warehouse  and logistics market has entered a phase of more considered investment activity. Developers are  increasingly focusing on projects with secured tenants, while the share of speculative space under  development has fallen to around 37%, the lowest level in several quarters. 

This is an important signal. The market is no longer as overheated as it was during the pandemic  boom, but it is not frozen either. It is more selective, more cautious, and more mature. 

What do the latest warehouse market data show? 

At the end of the first quarter of 2026, total modern warehouse and logistics stock in Poland reached  37.4 million sqm. This represented a 6.1% year-on-year increase. Around 1.46 million sqm was  under construction, while 653,000 sqm of new warehouse space was delivered in the first quarter of  2026. 

Demand also remained strong. According to CBRE, tenants leased a total of 1.58 million sqm of  warehouse space in the first quarter of 2026. The highest activity was recorded in the Mazowieckie,  Wielkopolskie, Dolnośląskie, and Łódzkie regions. At the end of March 2026, the vacancy rate  stood at 7.3%, which CBRE interpreted as a continued balance between supply and demand. 

AXI IMMO also pointed to a strong start to 2026. According to the company, gross take-up in the  first quarter of 2026 reached 1.58 million sqm, up 47% year on year, while net take-up increased to  850,000 sqm, up 78% year on year. 

These figures show that the Polish warehouse market is not in a downturn. It is in a phase of  stabilisation after a period of very rapid growth. 

Are vacancy levels a problem? 

A vacancy rate of around 7.3% is not automatically a negative signal. For investors, what matters  more is where vacancies are concentrated and what type of space they concern. 

If vacant space is mainly concentrated in weaker locations, older buildings, or warehouses with  lower technical standards, this does not necessarily mean a problem for modern Class A properties  in strong logistics locations. 

The market is becoming increasingly polarised. The best assets remain attractive, while weaker  properties have to compete through pricing, incentives, or greater flexibility. Newmark Polska  indicated that in the first quarter of 2026, a visible difference emerged between rents for prime 

assets and secondary properties. Modern buildings in the best locations recorded slight rental  growth, while owners of weaker assets had to offer larger incentive packages. 

For investors, the key question is therefore not: “does the market have vacancies?”, but rather: “will  this location and this building remain competitive in the coming years?” 

Can rents still grow? 

Rents in Poland remain relatively stable, but rental growth potential depends on location, building  standard, and the availability of alternative space. 

CBRE indicates that in the first quarter of 2026, rental rates remained stable, while changes in rent  levels depended mainly on location, building standard, and the availability of new space. 

In practice, this means that investors should not assume automatic rental growth in every warehouse  project. The strongest potential can be found in locations where supply is limited, occupier demand  is real, and the replacement cost of new development is high. 

An investor should therefore analyse not only the current rent, but also indexation potential, lease  renewal terms, competing supply in the area, the technical standard of the building, and ESG  requirements. 

Land prices: is it cheaper than during the boom? 

Industrial and warehouse land prices are one of the most difficult elements to analyse. There is no  single reliable nationwide price per square metre that can be fairly applied to the entire market. 

The price of land depends on location, local zoning, road access, utilities, power capacity, plot  shape, development potential, planning parameters, distance from a motorway, and competition  from other uses, such as residential or service functions. 

That is why understanding the trend is more important than quoting artificial price ranges. 

According to CBRE, the industrial and warehouse land market in Poland entered a stabilisation  phase in 2026. After a period of intense supply expansion between 2019 and 2023, 2025 brought  stabilisation, while forecasts for 2026 point to further moderate growth. CBRE also indicates that  current demand for investment land has weakened, while land supply exceeds demand. As a result,  prices that had previously been rising steadily have clearly stabilised. 

This is good news for investors. The land market may now be more rational than it was during the  strongest phase of the boom. Sellers may still expect high prices, but buyers often have more room  for detailed analysis, negotiations, and location selection. 

Why is land crucial for a warehouse investment? 

In warehouse development, land is not just a plot for a building. It is the foundation of the entire  investment. 

A good warehouse site should have access to a public road, good access for heavy goods vehicles,  favourable zoning, appropriate size and shape, the possibility of phased development, access to 

power, drainage potential, no serious environmental constraints, access to labour, and proximity to a  motorway, expressway, or border. 

In many cases, the land determines whether the investment will be safe. A building can be designed  and adapted, but the location cannot be changed. 

General plans and planning risk 

The land market is also affected by spatial planning reform. CBRE notes that 2026 is the year of  general plans in Poland, and their adoption may influence the supply of investment land. 

For investors, this means that detailed planning analysis is essential. It is not enough to check  whether a plot “looks good”. It is necessary to analyse the local zoning plan, the general plan,  infrastructure access, environmental constraints, and the realistic possibility of obtaining a building  permit. 

Financing availability: are banks returning to warehouses? 

Financing is one of the key factors determining whether a warehouse investment is profitable. After  a period of high interest rates and greater bank caution, investors are once again analysing projects,  but financing remains selective. 

CBRE indicates that in the first half of 2026, investment volume in the Polish commercial real  estate market exceeded EUR 3.03 billion. This represented a 78% year-on-year increase and the  strongest first-half result since 2018. According to CBRE, activity was supported by improving  financing conditions, rising capital values, and expectations of further rental growth. 

This shows that financing is no longer as significant a barrier as it was during the most difficult  period of rate increases, but it still does not mean easy access to debt for every project. 

Interest rates and warehouse investments 

Financing costs remain crucial for warehouse investments. In Poland, the reference rate of the  National Bank of Poland, following the decision of the Monetary Policy Council on 7-8 July 2026,  stood at 3.75% per annum. The lombard rate was 4.25%, while the deposit rate was 3.25%. 

For euro-denominated financing, decisions of the European Central Bank are also important. On 23  July 2026, the ECB left its key interest rates unchanged: the deposit facility rate at 2.25%, the main  refinancing operations rate at 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.65%. 

For a warehouse investor, this means that financing costs are lower than during the period of peak  interest rates, but they remain an important factor in profitability calculations. Banks will still  carefully assess project quality, the tenant, the lease agreement, location, equity contribution, and  the re-letting potential of the space. 

How do banks assess warehouse projects? 

A bank or financing institution primarily analyses risk. The key questions are very specific: does the project have a tenant?

how long is the lease agreement? 

is the tenant financially reliable? 

is the rent at market level? 

is the asset completed, under construction, or still planned? 

does the project have a building permit? 

is the land planning status clear? 

is there access to power? 

does the building meet ESG requirements? 

can the space be leased to another tenant? 

Projects with secured leases, strong tenants, and predictable cash flow are the easiest to finance.  Speculative projects, weaker locations, and assets requiring significant capital expenditure without a  clear commercialisation strategy are more difficult to finance. 

Is now a good time to buy an existing warehouse? 

Buying an existing warehouse may be a good solution for investors seeking predictable income.  The greatest advantage of an existing asset is the ability to analyse real parameters: the tenant, rent,  lease agreement, operating costs, vacancies, and technical standard. 

According to JLL, in the first quarter of 2026, the value of commercial real estate investment  transactions in Poland exceeded EUR 1 billion, while transaction volume in the warehouse sector  reached almost EUR 450 million. JLL indicated that the warehouse and logistics sector attracted the  strongest investor interest, with investors focusing on assets with long-term lease agreements. 

For investors, this means that the transaction market is returning, but it is focused on quality. An  existing warehouse with a strong tenant may be attractive. A property with a short lease, weak  location, or high re-letting risk requires much greater caution. 

Is now a good time to build a warehouse? 

Warehouse development can be attractive, but primarily when the project has secured demand. The  current market no longer rewards excessive speculation. Developers are increasingly limiting  projects without tenants, while banks are more cautious in assessing financing. 

The safest models today include: 

BTS, meaning build-to-suit for a specific tenant, 

pre-let projects, meaning schemes with a lease agreement signed before completion, phased development, 

modular warehouse parks,

buildings that can be divided into smaller units, 

projects along major transport corridors, 

and investments in locations with limited competition. 

Development without a tenant is still possible, but it requires a very strong location, solid financing,  and a realistic commercialisation strategy. 

Is it worth investing in land for warehouses? 

Investing in land for warehouse development can be attractive, but it requires patience and  specialist analysis. In 2026, it is no longer a market where it is enough to buy any plot near a major  road and wait for its value to increase. 

The strongest potential can be found in land located near motorways and expressways, close to  borders, large consumer markets, intermodal terminals, and regions with limited availability of  good plots. Local zoning, power access, good HGV access, phased development potential, and real  occupier demand are also very important. 

The highest risk applies to land without zoning, utilities, road access, or power, as well as sites with  environmental issues or locations where there is no real tenant demand. 

Why is location more important than ever? 

In a mature market phase, location becomes the investor’s most important protection. Even the best  building in a weak location may struggle to be re-let. A good warehouse in a strategic location, on  the other hand, can remain attractive for many years. 

The most important warehouse investment locations in Poland include Warsaw and its  surroundings, Upper Silesia, Central Poland, Lower Silesia, Wielkopolska, Western Poland,  locations near the German border, the A2 and A4 corridors, port areas, and locations near  intermodal terminals. 

From an investor’s perspective, locations that serve not only one local market but several markets at  the same time are particularly interesting. This is why Western Poland, the German border, and the  A2 corridor are becoming increasingly important. 

Western Poland and the A2 corridor as an example of a  defensive location 

Western Poland has several features that may increase the safety of a warehouse investment. First, it is close to Germany, the largest economy in Europe. 

Second, it enables companies to serve both the Polish and German markets from one location. Third, it offers competitive costs compared with many locations on the German side of the border. Fourth, the A2 corridor connects Berlin, Poznań, Łódź, and Warsaw.

Fifth, border locations can be attractive for 3PL operators, e-commerce, light manufacturing, cross border distribution, and companies shortening their supply chains. 

In this context, it is worth paying attention to the Gateway A2 offer in Świecko. The project is  located directly by national road DK29, around 4 km from the A2 motorway and in close proximity  to the German border. According to project information, available modules can be combined, and  example spaces include approximately 9,300 sqm, 20,800 sqm, and 39,400 sqm. 

For companies looking for a location to serve Poland, Germany, and Central Europe, Gateway A2  may be an interesting alternative to more expensive locations on the German side of the border. 

More information about the project: https://gatewaya2.com/ https://gatewaya2.de/ Should investors wait? 

Waiting may be a good strategy if an investor does not have a clear objective, does not know the  market, or is relying only on price declines. However, it may also be risky if the best locations and  best assets are secured earlier by other investors. 

In the current market phase, the most important question is not whether to wait, but what to analyse. 

An investor should check whether the location has real demand, whether the land or building has a  logistics advantage, whether the price reflects the risk, whether financing is available, whether the  tenant is reliable, whether the lease agreement secures cash flow, whether the project meets ESG  requirements, and whether the asset will still be attractive in 5 to 10 years. 

If the answers are positive, the current moment may be a good one. If the project is based mainly on  optimistic assumptions, greater caution is needed. 

Which projects may be most resilient to market changes? 

The most resilient projects are those with several layers of security: a strong location, a stable  tenant, a long lease agreement, modern technical standard, re-letting potential, access to power,  compliance with ESG requirements, a reasonable level of debt, and building flexibility. 

The more of these layers a project has, the greater the chance that the investment will withstand a  weaker market period. 

When can a warehouse investment be risky? 

A warehouse investment can be risky if it is based on overly optimistic assumptions. 

The most common risks include buying land without real development potential, lack of access to  power, an excessive entry price, no tenant, a short lease agreement, a weak tenant, an overly  specialised building, high financing costs, competing supply nearby, inability to divide the space, a  weak location, and no clear exit strategy. 

In a mature market, the biggest problems appear where investors buy a story rather than facts. That  is why a warehouse investment decision should be preceded by an analysis of data, location, lease  structure, financing, and alternative scenarios.

Key takeaways 

It can still be a good time to invest in warehouses, but mainly for selective investors. 

The Polish warehouse market has entered a stabilisation phase after very dynamic growth between  2019 and 2023. 

At the end of the first quarter of 2026, modern warehouse stock in Poland stood at 37.4 million sqm. Demand in the first quarter of 2026 reached 1.58 million sqm, while the vacancy rate stood at 7.3%. Developers are reducing the share of speculative projects, which may reduce the risk of oversupply. 

Industrial and warehouse land prices are stabilising because land supply exceeds demand. 

Financing is becoming more available than during the most difficult period of high interest rates,  but banks remain selective. 

Location, tenant quality, lease length, access to power, and re-letting potential are now the most  important factors. 

The best prospects are found in modern Class A warehouses, BTS projects, pre-let developments,  sale and leaseback transactions, and projects along major transport corridors. 

Western Poland, the German border, and the A2 corridor may be particularly interesting for  companies and investors analysing cross-border logistics. 

FAQ: is it still a good time to invest in warehouses? Is it worth investing in warehouses in 2026? 

Yes, but selectively. The strongest potential is found in modern warehouses in good locations, with  long-term lease agreements, stable tenants, and access to infrastructure. 

Is the Polish warehouse market already saturated? 

It is not possible to say that the entire market is fully saturated. Poland has 37.4 million sqm of  modern warehouse space, but demand remains active. Problems may concern specific locations or  weaker assets, not the entire sector. 

Are vacancies a threat to investors? 

Vacancies are a risk, but they must be analysed locally. A vacancy rate of 7.3% at the end of the first  quarter of 2026 suggests stabilisation rather than a market downturn. The key issue is whether a  given asset is located in an area with real demand. 

Are land prices for warehouses falling? 

According to CBRE, industrial and warehouse land prices have clearly stabilised after an earlier  period of growth. However, prices should not be generalised across the whole of Poland, as they  depend on location, zoning, infrastructure, power access, and road access.

Do banks finance warehouse investments? 

Yes, but selectively. Projects with secured tenants, long lease agreements, strong technical  standards, and predictable cash flow are the easiest to finance. Speculative projects are assessed  more cautiously. 

Is it better to buy an existing warehouse or build a new one? 

It depends on the investor’s strategy. An existing warehouse allows the investor to analyse real  income and the current tenant. New development may offer higher potential, but it involves greater  risk, especially without a secured tenant. 

Which warehouse locations are currently the most interesting? 

The most interesting locations are those near motorways, expressways, large consumer markets,  intermodal terminals, ports, and borders. Western Poland and the A2 corridor are particularly  important because of their proximity to Germany. 

Does Gateway A2 fit current market trends? 

Yes. Gateway A2 in Świecko fits trends related to cross-border logistics, nearshoring, and serving  the German market. Its location near the German border and close to the A2 motorway may be  attractive for 3PL operators, e-commerce, distribution, and light manufacturing. 

Summary 

Is it still a good time to invest in warehouses? Yes, but only if the investor understands that the  market has shifted from a rapid-growth phase to a market of quality, location, and selectivity. 

Today, the most important factors are not general statements about a warehouse boom, but specific  data: vacancy levels, occupier demand, new supply, land prices, financing costs, tenant quality, and  re-letting potential. 

The Polish warehouse market remains one of the most important markets in Central Europe. It has  large scale, stable demand, growing maturity, and a strategic location. At the same time, investors  must be more cautious than they were a few years ago. 

The best investment moment does not always occur during the period of greatest optimism. It often  appears when the market is stabilising, prices are becoming more rational, financing is gradually  improving, and weaker projects are falling out of competition. 

In this environment, modern warehouse projects in locations with lasting logistics advantages may  be particularly interesting. Such locations include Western Poland, areas near the German border,  and the A2 corridor. That is why companies and investors analysing warehouses to serve Poland,  Germany, and Central Europe should take a closer look at the Gateway A2 offer in Świecko. 

More information about the project: https://gatewaya2.pl/ 

What comes next?

As investors increasingly analyse not only the warehouse market itself, but also the timing of entry,  financing costs, land prices, and the market cycle, the next natural question is: which locations will  have the strongest growth potential in the coming years? 

In the next article in the series, we will analyse the topic: Which warehouse locations will grow  the most by 2030? 

We will look at the regions that may benefit most from infrastructure development, nearshoring, e commerce, cross-border logistics, labour availability, land prices, and proximity to the largest  consumer markets. Locations along major transport corridors, borders, and logistics hubs will be  particularly important, including Western Poland and the A2 corridor. 

Sources used in this article 

CBRE, “Stabilne zaplecze nowych inwestycji na rynku magazynowym”, data for Q1 2026: 37.4  million sqm of stock, 1.46 million sqm under construction, 653,000 sqm of new supply, 1.58  million sqm of demand, a 7.3% vacancy rate, and a decline in the share of speculative projects to  around 37%. 

https://www.cbre.pl/insights/articles/stabilne-zaplecze-nowych-inwestycji-na-rynku-magazynowym

AXI IMMO, “Industrial & Logistics Market in Poland, Q1 2026”, data on gross take-up of 1.58  million sqm, 47% year-on-year growth in gross take-up, net take-up of 850,000 sqm, and a vacancy  rate of 7.3%. 

https://www.axiimmo.com/en/reports-publication/strong-start-to-the-year-on-the-industrial-market with-a-clear-increase-in-new-leases-and-expansions/ 

CBRE, “Rynek gruntów przemysłowo-magazynowych – co przyniesie rok 2026?”, analysis of land  price stabilisation, land supply exceeding demand, and the impact of general plans on the  investment land market. 

https://www.cbre.pl/insights/articles/rynek-gruntow-przemyslowo-magazynowych-co-przyniesie rok-2026 

CBRE, “Poland Investment Figures Q2 2026”, data on investment transaction volume in Poland in  the first half of 2026: more than EUR 3.03 billion, 78% year-on-year growth, and the strongest first half result since 2018. 

https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/poland-investment-figures-q2-2026

JLL, “Wiosenne przebudzenie na polskim rynku inwestycyjnym”, data on more than EUR 1 billion  of commercial real estate investment in Poland in Q1 2026 and almost EUR 450 million of  transactions in the warehouse sector. 

https://www.jll.com/pl-pl/newsroom/wiosenne-przebudzenie-na-polskim-rynku-inwestycyjnym

National Bank of Poland, statement after the Monetary Policy Council meeting on 7-8 July 2026,  data on the NBP reference rate of 3.75%, lombard rate of 4.25%, and deposit rate of 3.25%. 

European Central Bank, decision of 23 July 2026, data on keeping the deposit facility rate at 2.25%,  the main refinancing operations rate at 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.65%.

Gateway A2, information about the project location in Świecko by DK29, around 4 km from the A2  motorway and close to the German border. 

https://gatewaya2.pl