How Trade Wars, Nearshoring, and Global  Crises Are Changing Logistics and the  Warehouse Market in Europe 

Global crises, the trade war between the United States and China, the COVID-19 pandemic, the war  in Ukraine, and disruptions on key transport routes are forcing companies to redesign their supply  chains. The most important direction of this change is the shortening of supply chains, the  relocation of production closer to customers, and the need to improve operational security. 

As a result, Central Europe, and Poland in particular, is becoming increasingly important as a  location for manufacturing, warehousing, and distribution. 

For the commercial real estate market, this means one thing: modern warehouses, logistics parks,  and distribution centres are becoming strategic infrastructure for the European economy. They are  no longer just places used for storing goods. Increasingly, they determine whether a company can  

deliver products quickly, maintain business continuity, and reduce risks related to global supply  chain disruptions. 

Key trends changing logistics in Europe 

Global supply chains have become too risky 

For many years, globalisation was based on one main idea: produce where costs are lowest and  transport goods to the target markets. This is why many companies moved production to Asia,  especially to China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, and other lower-cost countries. 

This model worked well when transport costs were stable, delivery times were predictable, and the  geopolitical environment was relatively calm. However, recent years have shown that very long and  complex supply chains are vulnerable to disruption.

According to McKinsey, global value chains have become longer and more complex over recent  decades. Since 2000, the value of trade in intermediate goods has tripled, exceeding USD 10 trillion  annually. At the same time, companies can now expect supply chain disruptions lasting one month  or longer to occur every 3.7 years. 

This is a major change. In the past, disruptions were treated as exceptions. Today, they have become  a permanent part of business planning. Companies are no longer asking only where production is  cheapest. They are also asking where supply chains are more resilient, flexible, and secure. 

From Just in Time to Just in Case 

For many years, logistics was dominated by the Just in Time model. It was based on minimising  inventories, reducing storage costs, and delivering goods exactly when they were needed. This  model was highly efficient financially, but only as long as the entire supply chain worked without  disruption. 

Recent crises have exposed the weakness of this approach. If a factory in Asia stops production, a  port is blocked, sea transport is delayed, or freight costs increase rapidly, a company without  sufficient stock can quickly lose the ability to serve its customers. 

This is why the Just in Case model is becoming increasingly important. It means building greater  operational resilience through additional stock, alternative suppliers, regional warehouses, and more  flexible distribution centres. 

McKinsey highlights that companies now need to find a balance between efficiency and resilience.  Adequate safety stock, supplier diversification, and redundancy in transport networks can reduce the  financial impact of disruptions. 

For the warehouse market, this means growing demand for space that does more than support day to-day distribution. Warehouses are increasingly becoming a buffer that protects business  continuity. 

The trade war has changed the way companies think about  production locations 

The trade war between the United States and China was one of the first clear signals that  globalisation was beginning to change. Tariffs, export restrictions, sanctions, technology controls,  and political tensions started to influence production decisions. 

In practice, companies began asking whether excessive dependence on one country or one region  was too risky. 

This does not mean that China has stopped being important. On the contrary, China remains one of  the world’s most important manufacturing centres. However, many companies are now adopting  strategies such as China Plus One, nearshoring, and friendshoring. This means keeping part of  production in China while adding alternative production locations closer to customers or in more  politically stable regions. 

Reuters, citing the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, reported that more than 70%  of European companies in China had reviewed their supply chain strategies over the previous two  years, while around 10% were building alternative supply chains outside China.

This is not a short-term trend. It is a structural change in the way companies manage risk.  Businesses still want cost efficiency, but they also need greater control over their supply chains. 

The Red Sea crisis exposed the weakness of long-distance sea  transport 

One of the most visible examples of recent logistics disruption was the crisis in the Red Sea.  Attacks on commercial vessels caused many shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal and  redirect ships around the Cape of Good Hope. 

This meant longer routes, higher fuel consumption, delivery delays, and increased transport costs. 

Reuters reported in 2024 that many vessels were avoiding the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden,  choosing the longer route around Africa. For many companies, this meant longer lead times and the  need to secure additional inventory. 

From the perspective of European companies, this is a very important signal. If a product has to  travel thousands of kilometres by sea, any blockade, conflict, or route change can disrupt the entire  business model. This is one of the reasons why more companies are considering production and  warehousing closer to their final markets. 

Supply security has become as important as cost 

Until recently, the key question was: where can we produce at the lowest cost? 

Today, the question is increasingly different: where can we produce and store goods in a way that is  secure, predictable, and resilient to disruption? 

This is a major shift. In modern logistics, the cost per square metre of warehouse space is no longer  the only factor. Companies also consider: 

– access to motorways, 

– proximity to customers, 

– delivery time, 

– the ability to scale warehouse space, 

– availability of labour, 

– legal and political stability, 

– country risk, 

– the ability to serve several markets from one location. 

The European Commission has also emphasised that access to critical raw materials is becoming  increasingly important for the EU economy. The supply of many key materials is highly  concentrated geographically, which creates additional risk for European supply chains.

This example shows why Europe wants to diversify supply sources and strengthen local value  chains. For logistics, this means a growing role for regional manufacturing, warehousing, and  distribution hubs. 

Nearshoring, reshoring, and friendshoring: What is the  difference? 

In discussions about new supply chains, three terms are often used: nearshoring, reshoring, and  friendshoring. It is important to understand the difference between them, because all three have a  direct impact on the warehouse market in Europe. 

The greatest opportunity for Poland lies in nearshoring and friendshoring. Poland may not always  be the lowest-cost production location, but it can offer a safer, closer, more predictable, and better connected alternative for companies serving Western Europe. 

Central Europe is gaining from changes in global  manufacturing 

Central Europe is becoming one of the natural beneficiaries of changes in global logistics and  manufacturing. 

There are several reasons for this. 

First, the region is located close to Europe’s largest economies, including Germany, France, Italy,  Austria, and the Benelux countries. 

Second, many Central European countries are members of the European Union. This means  common regulations, no internal customs barriers within the EU, and greater legal predictability. 

Third, operating costs are often still lower than in Western Europe. 

Fourth, the region has rapidly improving road, rail, and warehouse infrastructure. 

In this context, Poland has a particularly strong position. It is a large domestic market, borders  Germany, has a developed motorway network, and is one of the largest warehouse markets in  Europe.

According to CBRE, Poland’s total warehouse and logistics stock reached 36.6 million sqm at the  end of the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 5.9% year-on-year increase. This strengthens  Poland’s position as one of the largest warehouse markets in Europe. 

Poland is becoming one of the main beneficiaries of  nearshoring 

Poland benefits from global supply chain changes for several reasons. 

First, it is located between Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe. This allows companies  to serve multiple markets from one location. 

Second, it borders Germany, Europe’s largest economy. For manufacturing and logistics companies,  this means the ability to operate close to a key market while benefiting from lower operating costs  than on the German side of the border. 

Third, Poland has a strong labour market, an established manufacturing base, and experience in  serving sectors such as automotive, e-commerce, third-party logistics, retail, and light  manufacturing. 

Fourth, modern warehouse space is available in many regions of the country, including locations  along major transport corridors. 

Knight Frank reported that total warehouse take-up in Poland reached 6.6 million sqm in 2025,  making it the third-highest annual result in the history of the Polish warehouse market. According to  the same report, demand was mainly driven by 3PL operators and retail chains, while light  manufacturing companies accounted for approximately 15% of total leasing volume. 

This is important because it shows that the Polish warehouse market is not growing only because of  traditional logistics. Manufacturing companies are also playing an increasingly important role,  especially those looking for facilities that combine warehousing, distribution, and light production  functions. 

The warehouse market in Poland as business security  infrastructure 

Modern Class A warehouses are becoming part of business security infrastructure. For companies  operating in Europe, it is no longer enough to lease low-cost space. They need a location that  provides fast access to customers, flexibility for future expansion, and resilience against disruptions. 

A warehouse can now perform several functions at the same time: 

– distribution centre, 

– safety stock hub, 

– cross-docking facility, 

– e-commerce fulfilment hub, 

– support facility for production,

– cross-border distribution centre. 

This is why logistics real estate located near major motorways and national borders is becoming  more important. Companies need to react quickly to changes in demand and disruptions in supply. 

Western Poland as a logistics gateway to Europe 

Western Poland is one of the regions that can benefit the most from these changes. Why? 

Because it combines several advantages in one location: 

– proximity to Germany, 

– access to the A2 motorway, 

– the ability to serve both the Polish and German markets, 

– lower costs than in Germany, 

– location within the European Union, 

– access to a rapidly developing warehouse market. 

For companies serving Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, the Baltic States, and Central Europe,  a warehouse in western Poland can be a highly efficient solution. It can reduce delivery distances,  lower costs, and maintain proximity to the largest customers. 

Gateway A2 in Swiecko: A location that responds to new  market needs 

This is exactly the context in which Swiecko and the Gateway A2 project should be viewed. 

Swiecko is located directly on the German border and next to the A2 motorway, one of the most  important transport corridors connecting Poland with Western Europe. This location fits perfectly  into the most important trends in modern logistics: nearshoring, cross-border logistics, supply chain  security, access to the German market, and shorter supply chains. 

For logistics companies, manufacturers, 3PL operators, and e-commerce businesses, this location  can provide: 

– shorter delivery times to Germany, 

– the ability to serve two markets from one warehouse, 

– lower operating costs compared with many German locations, 

– access to modern Class A warehouse space, 

– improved supply chain resilience.

Gateway A2 can therefore be presented not only as a warehouse project, but as a response to the  transformation of European logistics. This is especially important at a time when companies are no  longer looking only for space. They are looking for strategic locations that protect and strengthen  their operations. 

Which sectors benefit most from nearshoring and logistics  transformation? 

The greatest potential in Poland can be found in sectors that need proximity to the market, stable  supply chains, and modern warehouse space. 

These include: 

– automotive, 

– e-commerce, 

– retail, 

– 3PL logistics operators, 

– electronics, 

– household appliances, 

– pharmaceuticals, 

– light manufacturing, 

– packaging, 

– spare parts, 

– fast-moving consumer goods, 

– cross-border distribution. 

In practice, this means that demand for warehouse space will become increasingly diversified. It  will not be driven only by large distribution centres for online retail. Facilities that combine  warehousing, production, servicing, and distribution functions will also become more important. 

The war in Ukraine increased the importance of stable  locations within the EU 

The war in Ukraine has shown how important geopolitical location is. For international companies,  country stability, EU membership, and access to infrastructure have become important arguments  when choosing a location.

Although Poland is located on the eastern edge of the European Union, it has gained importance as  a logistics, humanitarian, transport, and trade gateway for the region. 

At the same time, its proximity to Germany and Western European markets means that Poland can  play a dual role: as a logistics base for Western Europe and as a gateway to Central and Eastern  Europe. 

This dual role is particularly important for warehouse investors and occupiers. Friendshoring: Poland as a safe partner in the supply chain 

Friendshoring means moving production or sourcing to countries considered politically stable,  predictable, and aligned with the same economic or political bloc. 

For Western European companies, Poland is a natural candidate for this strategy. It is a member of  the European Union and NATO, operates under EU trade regulations, and is strongly integrated  with European industry. 

This is especially important for sectors where supply security is critical, such as automotive,  electronics, energy, pharmaceuticals, industrial components, and technology. 

Not every company will move all production to Poland. However, many companies may relocate  part of their processes, create a backup production site, establish an additional warehouse, or build a  regional distribution hub. 

Automation and AI increase the importance of modern  warehouses 

Modern warehouses increasingly rely on automation, robotics, and data-driven systems. This is  another reason why Class A facilities are becoming more important. 

For occupiers, location and rent are no longer the only factors. Companies also pay attention to: – clear height, 

– floor load capacity, 

– number of loading docks, 

– automation potential, 

– access to power, 

– ESG standards, 

– environmental certification, 

– expansion options, 

– employee infrastructure.

In a world where logistics must be fast, predictable, and resilient, older buildings often no longer  meet the requirements of large occupiers. 

This strengthens demand for modern logistics parks in well-connected locations. ESG and energy security 

Another trend influencing the warehouse market is ESG. Companies increasingly ask about energy  efficiency, solar panel installation, building certification, transport emissions, and environmentally  friendly operating solutions. 

Shortening supply chains can also have an environmental dimension. Shorter transport routes can  mean lower emissions and greater control over logistics processes. 

This is why nearshoring and ESG increasingly support each other. A company that moves part of its  production closer to the final market can improve supply security, shorten transport times, and  reduce the environmental impact of logistics. 

What does this mean for warehouse investors? 

For commercial real estate investors, the transformation of global supply chains represents a long term opportunity. 

The most attractive locations will be those that meet several conditions at the same time: – they are located along major transport corridors, 

– they provide access to large consumer markets, 

– they enable cross-border distribution, 

– they offer modern Class A space, 

– they allow future expansion, 

– they are cost-competitive compared with Western Europe, 

– they fit into the trends of nearshoring and friendshoring. 

This is why western Poland, especially locations along the A2 motorway and near the German  border, may become increasingly important in the coming years. 

What does this mean for warehouse tenants? 

For warehouse occupiers, these changes are equally important. 

Companies that have relied heavily on long-distance supply chains may now need additional space  in Europe. Some will look for buffer warehouses, others for distribution centres, and some for  facilities that allow light production or assembly. 

A well-chosen warehouse location can help a company:

– shorten delivery times, 

– reduce the risk of delays, 

– improve customer service, 

– increase flexibility, 

– secure inventory, 

– lower transport costs, 

– serve several markets from one location. 

For this reason, choosing a warehouse is now a strategic decision, not only an operational one. Key takeaways 

Global crises have shown that long supply chains are vulnerable to disruption. Companies are increasingly moving from a Just in Time model to a Just in Case model. 

Trade wars, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and transport crises have increased the importance of  supply security. 

Nearshoring and friendshoring are strengthening the position of Central Europe. 

Poland is one of the main beneficiaries of these changes due to its location, infrastructure, costs, and  proximity to Germany. 

Poland’s modern warehouse stock reached 36.6 million sqm at the end of 2025. 

Warehouse take-up in Poland reached 6.6 million sqm in 2025, the third-highest result in the history  of the market. 

Western Poland, the A2 motorway, and locations near the German border will continue to gain  importance. 

Gateway A2 in Świecko fits the key trends shaping European logistics: nearshoring, cross-border  logistics, supply chain security, and access to the German market. 

FAQ: global crises, nearshoring, and the warehouse market in  Europe 

Does the trade war increase demand for warehouses in Europe? 

Yes. Trade wars and geopolitical tensions encourage companies to reduce dependence on one  country or one continent. In practice, this often means creating additional warehouses, distribution  centres, and safety stock locations closer to the final market. 

What is nearshoring?

Nearshoring means moving production, warehousing, or distribution closer to customers. For  European companies, it may involve relocating part of their operations from Asia to Central Europe,  including Poland. 

What is the difference between nearshoring and reshoring? 

Nearshoring means moving production closer to the target market, but not necessarily back to the  company’s home country. Reshoring means bringing production back to the company’s original  country. 

What is friendshoring? 

Friendshoring means moving production or sourcing to countries considered politically stable,  secure, and economically aligned. Poland, as a member of the European Union and NATO, fits well  into this trend. 

Why does Poland benefit from nearshoring? 

Poland benefits because it is close to Germany and other major European markets, has strong  infrastructure, competitive operating costs, a large labour market, and one of the largest stocks of  modern warehouse space in Europe. 

Which warehouse locations will be the most attractive? 

The strongest potential lies in locations close to major motorways, national borders, intermodal  terminals, and large consumer markets. In Poland, locations along the A2 motorway and near the  German border are particularly attractive. 

Will warehouses near the German border become more important? 

Yes. Proximity to Germany allows companies to serve Europe’s largest economy while benefiting  from cost and infrastructure advantages on the Polish side of the border. 

Why can Gateway A2 be attractive for logistics companies? 

Gateway A2 in Świecko is located next to the A2 motorway and directly on the German border. It  enables companies to serve both the Polish and German markets from one logistics centre, which  fits the trends of nearshoring, cross-border logistics, and shorter supply chains. 

Summary 

Global logistics is undergoing its biggest transformation in decades. Companies are not abandoning  globalisation, but they are changing its model. Instead of relying only on the lowest production  costs and long transport routes, they are building more resilient, regional, and flexible supply  chains. 

In this new model, Central Europe is playing an increasingly important role. Poland, thanks to its  location, infrastructure, warehouse market scale, and proximity to Germany, can become one of the  key beneficiaries of this transformation.

For investors, this means growing demand for modern logistics real estate. For occupiers, it means  the opportunity to build safer and more efficient operations. For the warehouse market, it means  further development of Class A space in strategic locations. 

One of these locations is Świecko and the Gateway A2 project, combining access to the A2  motorway, proximity to Germany, and the potential to serve multiple markets from a single  location. 

What comes next? 

Global crises, trade wars, and transport disruptions are the background to an even bigger shift: the  relocation of production from Asia closer to European customers. Nearshoring may become one of  the most important drivers of growth for the Polish warehouse market in the coming years. 

In the next article, we will answer the question: Nearshoring: Is It the Biggest Opportunity for  the Warehouse Market in Poland? We will analyse why companies are moving production from  Asia, which sectors are doing this most often, and why Central Europe, especially Poland, may  become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this global transformation. 

Sources used in this article 

McKinsey indicates that supply chain disruptions lasting one month or longer occur on average  every 3.7 years, while global trade in intermediate goods has tripled since 2000 to more than USD  10 trillion annually. McKinsey also highlights the need to balance Just in Time efficiency with Just  in Case resilience and to build greater redundancy in supply networks. 

CBRE reported that Poland’s total warehouse and logistics stock reached 36.6 million sqm at the  end of Q4 2025, representing a 5.9% year-on-year increase. 

Knight Frank reported that warehouse take-up in Poland reached 6.6 million sqm in 2025, while  light manufacturing companies accounted for approximately 15% of total leasing volume. 

Reuters reported that European companies operating in China are increasingly reviewing and  diversifying their supply chain strategies, with more than 70% reassessing their approach in recent  years. 

The European Commission highlights that access to critical raw materials is strategic for EU  industry, and that the supply of many of these materials is geographically concentrated, increasing  risk in European supply chains.